Publicly available software for calculation of late health effects of radiation exposure is limited to empiric models of relative cancer risks for given age at diagnosis. However, for personalized risk evaluation this is insufficient. Highly relevant are (1) not only relative risks (i.e. the increase by a certain percentage of the spontaneous risk) but also absolute risks (i.e. the absolute increase of the incidence rate) are highly relevant, (2) not only the risks at a certain age but also lifetime risks, (3) not only risks for cancer but also for cardiovascular diseases, (4) not only risk assessments based on empiric models (i.e. based on epidemiological data only) but also evaluations considering models of pathogenesis (i.e. based on radiation biology and epidemiology) and, finally, (5) not only the dependence of the risk with on gender and age but also on other individual risk factors.

Information on late health risks specified in this way is an important guideline in order to optimize the medical application of radiation for patients with good prognosis. The objective of PASSOS is to develop two computer programs. The first is supposed to estimate late health effects for known organ doses. Based on this, the second program is supposed to calculate the late health effects regarding various therapy methods for breast cancer and diagnostic procedures of heart diseases. In doing so, the respective uncertainty intervals are calculated besides the actual risk values, which can be helpful for the valuation of the risk estimates.

 

Involved partner:
Institut für Strahlenschutz, Helmholtz Zentrum München